Stocking reduction in a juvenile stand
Pre-commercial thinning program
Timber pricing, long-term planting-density trials, and growth-and-yield models were combined to set target stems per acre by site type and model a pre-commercial thinning cost ceiling consistent with the landowner’s target rate of return.
High-density juvenile stands lost an economically viable thinning outlet as pulpwood demand and pricing declined.
Pricing, density trials, and growth-and-yield models informed the program.
Target stems per acre by site type, a modeled PCT cost ceiling, and a program developed with PCT crews.
The pressure
Challenge
Pulp mill closures across the U.S. Southeast sharply reduced demand for pulpwood and weakened pricing. As a result, stands planted at high densities could no longer be economically thinned to reduce basal area, increasing the risk of stagnant growth, forest health issues, and low-value timber.
The evidence
Analysis
We combined timber pricing data, findings from long-term planting-density trials, and growth-and-yield models to set target stems per acre for different site types. Using those projections, we modeled a PCT cost ceiling consistent with the landowner’s targeted rate of return.
- Timber pricing
- Long-term density trials
- Growth-and-yield models
The field work
Field program
We then worked with PCT crews to develop a program that met the landowner’s quantitative stocking targets and qualitative objectives.
The result
Decision framework
The result was a science-led, finance-driven model linking target stems per acre by site type to a modeled PCT cost ceiling consistent with the target rate of return. It provided a practical framework for selecting stands and setting treatment targets.
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Let’s build the framework around your land.
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